October 18, 2024.

That’s the last time you heard from me before I seemingly vanished. I popped up once in a blue moon - a tweet here or there - just enough to qualify as signs of life, but that was it.

“Welcome to Alpha Loop” went out over the wires that day, I wrote a few words to express my genuine gratitude for spending your most valuable asset reading Hoags - your time.

Elsewhere, the milestone barely got a moment to breathe. It came in quickly and went out faster, as it always does.

It’s been 605 days since you and I connected over shared interests. Far too long of an absence, but like I said, I’ve been jammed!

June 14th, 2026

Today is my 31st birthday - 605 days later.

Today is also the day I can happily say 'I'm back.'

I’ve come bearing more than a few stories to tell, the bumps and bruises to go along with them, and the scars left behind by the brutality of lessons learned the hard way. But that's in the past, what's important is that I'm back to writing full-time. And I couldn’t be happier.

Now that the niceties are out of the way, let’s get into it. We’ve got a lot to cover so let’s recap where we left off.

“Ground Control to Major Tom”

Gray Areas - my last ‘real’ post, and a title I’d come to take far too literally over the next two years. At the time, I was weeks from announcing a markets podcast. I’d already recorded a couple of episodes with guests who were, and still are, by any measure “great gets.” Everything after Gray Areas dissolved before it could materialize. Instead, the most-read piece I’ve ever written was left stranded - drifting like a tin can. I didn’t know it then; life rarely issues a warning before it reroutes everything.

The Process is simple: brainstorm, draft, refine, ship, close up shop, then begin again - bound by a single rule: make the next piece your best piece. Sustain a cadence around that, and I have everything I need to take the fragments of an idea, scatter them like puzzle pieces, and aim to reassemble the picture with surgical precision - until it lands on a reader and lingers long after they’ve closed the tab.

But what happens when the flow that ordinarily surges from my brain, down through the wiring I’ve connected to my hands - the medium I use to arrange those fragments and puzzle pieces in a way that leaves an impact - is suddenly severed? When my brain can no longer reach my hands because the line’s been cut, the fragments stranded, my hands with no way to fit the pieces together across the keys, leaving the keyboard quiet while my mind only grows louder and more cluttered by the day? How does life arrest a Process this simple?

When the cadence broke, discipline was supposed to step in. It didn’t. Writing tomorrow became writing next week, and then time did what time does. It folds, accelerates, blurs, bleeds, erodes. The Process that felt etched in stone starts to feel foreign. Time slips, Life happens.

The institutional voice kept shipping. It always has. The discipline that starts with “Dear Partners...” is older than whatever was breaking inside me, and it kept showing up to work so the connection couldn’t be severed, right? Right.

The personal voice - the one you’re reading right now - was gone with no plans of coming back as it had in the past. I knew exactly what was wrong, too. I’d lost it. Not the muse, not a slow week, not the tidy little block people post about for engagement. The actual wiring, the cadence, the way the fragments are supposed to land, the follow-up that softens a punch without dulling it. Gone without a trace.

You can’t write your way out of that, and it’s the part nobody tells you when you ask for guidance. “Just write through it” is good advice for someone whose voice still answers when the hands call. Mine had stopped answering outside of the automated voice we all know, “We’re sorry, you have reached a number that has been disconnected.”

Every time I forced the Process, I produced another 1,500 competent and lifeless words that I deleted by morning, because they were a stranger doing a poor impression of me. So I stopped trying to write, and I went looking for where the voice had actually gone.

“I started my life with a single absolute: that the world was mine to shape in the image of my highest values and never to be given up to a lesser standard, no matter how long or hard the struggle.” - Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged (1957)

That was the story I believed about myself. Read it again, because everything that follows is what happens when you actually try to live a life like the one Ayn Rand described instead of admiring it from a safe distance.

The first two Flashpoint pieces made one argument: markets, and the narratives that shape them, don’t live in black and white. The story you tell yourself; this stock’s a buy, that one’s a sell, this crisis had a villain and a hero - is almost always a flattening of something that actually lived in the gray. The cash that saved the banking system in ‘08 didn’t come from where the textbooks and the politicians said it did. The truth sat in the gray area, where the real story always is.

This Flashpoint, Part 3 , points the same thesis at myself. There was no single decision that broke anything. No villain. No moment I can point to and say there, that’s the mistake. Every choice I made was defensible the day I made it, and most of them I’d make again. So this isn’t a confession, and it isn’t a list of regrets. It’s seven moments, each one reasonable on its own, that stacked into a place I could never have drawn on a map beforehand. The pattern matters more than the specifics. If any of it sounds familiar, that’s the point.

I. The Process

I didn’t come to this from money or a Wall Street name. I built the resume one reluctant, cold intro at a time. Equity research first - learning to take a company apart and find out what it’s actually worth, with a focus on the small and mid-cap names the big shops ignore because the positions don’t move the needle. Then VC, allocating capital and watching founders up close - what makes one of them build something real and another raise a round and disappear. Then COO and Co-PM of a hedged equity product with north of $250mm in AUM, getting the institutional reps most people spend a whole career hoping for.

Every seat showed me the field from different angles, until the conclusion stopped being a question: it was time to build my own.

So I left, and I started Alpha Loop Capital. That wasn’t reckless. It was the most considered decision of my life. I was positioned for it - the reps, the track record, the thesis, and the quiet certainty that the ideas I’d spent years tinkering with had become an edge, one that justified a HF fee schedule. Going all in wasn’t a gamble against the odds. I was doing what I always did, putting all the chips on the table and betting on myself.

II. All-In

I committed my career earnings as GP capital. Dollars I’d earned since I started working, structured into the fund in one way or another. It’s the cleanest version of skin in the game there is: if I’m going to ask other people to bet on me, I’d better be the largest believer in the room.

I’d been betting on myself my whole life. This was just the biggest (and scariest) version of it.

Days after I filed to move forward, Kat and I found out she was pregnant. That’s the inflection point - and not because either thing was wrong. Both were the best news I could have received. It’s because the moment they landed together, the bell couldn’t be un-rung . Every dollar committed. A daughter coming. Two all-in bets on two different tables, settling on the same timeline. From that day forward there was no version of slowing down still available to me. I had structured my life so the only direction left was forward, harder, faster.

III. The Anomaly

Early in the pregnancy, a routine prenatal screen came back flagging a chromosomal condition. Serious, but understood - there’s literature, there are care pathways, there are other people who’ve walked it and can tell you what the road looks like.

The deeper testing said something else. What they found in my daughter’s genome had no precedent. Not rare, not unusual - no precedent, no prior documented case anywhere of a person carrying what she carried and surviving. The kind of finding that gets studied across continents precisely because there is nothing to compare it to.

What that meant, in the only terms that mattered to me, was a question I had to carry every single day: would she be alive tomorrow? Did we make the right decision and risk Kat’s life too? I carried that, all of it, while launching a hedge fund.

Alpha Loop went live on the first trading day of June 2025. Ellie arrived a few months later on September 26th, a month early, straight into the NICU. So the fund’s first months and my daughter’s ‘welcome to earth’ journey ran on the exact same calendar. Markets continued to open in the morning, every morning like they always did, yet I felt like I was stuck in time with no ability to feel the pressure anymore. That’s what I told myself, at least.

Ellie made it. She’s here. As far as medical science and cytogenetics currently knows, she is the only person who has ever survived her genomic sequencing during the pregnancy. That means a baby in my house quietly changed a presumed “certainty” in medicine and science, rewriting lines in a textbook just by breathing. Ellie and Kat’s story, and the science underneath it, deserves its own telling, and it will get one. This isn’t that piece. This is just the part where I tell you what the gray area actually feels like from the inside: no clean answer, no binary, no pause button. Everything, at full speed, all at once.

IV. No Ledger

Stack it up. A daughter arriving early with a condition no baby has ever survived. Kat carrying her own health through a brutal pregnancy. A fund that needed capital raised, investment theses articulated, capital deployed, operations run, and a founder present for every hour of it. And the only tool I had ever been handed for fear was the same one I’d used for everything: work harder.

So I worked harder. More all-nighters last fall than I’d ever admit to in a doctor’s office, ‘Grinding it out’ was the only language I was fluent in. Whether it was being scared, nervous, overwhelmed, or any other similar emotions, I worked. When I couldn’t fix the thing that plagued me at that moment, I worked more. It looked like discipline from the outside, but from the inside it was a man running the same same playbook expecting a different result. I think they’ve got a word for that… Oh, right, insanity.

The night we finally got word that Ellie was going to be okay, I sat down to play Xbox knowing I didn’t need to look far to understand that I was in shock. As if that wasn’t jarring enough, I had two hours of relief. Two hours. Then I found out that my best friend since childhood had been diagnosed with stage-four cancer.

That is the gray area in its purest form, and it’s where the title of this piece begins. There is no ledger where that nets out. You don’t get to book the gain and close the day on it. The board just resets, working in ways that make you question why it’s all happening. And while you question, you’re standing there holding relief in one hand and grief in the other. And the market opens once again in the morning with no regard for what you’re carrying.

V. The Body Keeps the Score

Bessel van der Kolk’s The Body Keeps the Score (2014) - whose title is the entire thesis of this moment, and which I understand now in a way I would rather not. My body broke before my mind would let me admit anything was wrong. Everything I refused to feel, everything I worked through instead of sitting with, my body had been quietly filing away the whole time, keeping the count I wouldn’t keep myself. Eventually it called the debt. It stopped cooperating. It made the fear physical in a way I could no longer out-work or outrun, and it forced a stop I would never have chosen on my own.

While my body was waving every red flag it had: I tried to work, you thought this time was different?

I couldn’t keep my own head straight, so I reached for the one thing that had ever made the fear quieter. There was nothing productive to grind toward. I did it anyway. That’s not meant to be braggadocios, that’s a man reconciling that he had built an identity out of being useful that he no longer knew how to be a person who needed help. I could not sit still inside my own emergency.

VI. The Floor

“Why do we fall, sir? So that we can learn to pick ourselves up.” - Michael Caine as Alfred in The Dark Knight Rises (2012)

January is where it bottomed out. I’m not going to litigate the personal details in public - some of them stay mine, and some of them belong to the people I love. What I’ll say is that the part of my life that had nothing to do with spreadsheets fractured, and it fractured at the precise moment I had the least left to give it.

And here’s the honest piece most founders will never put in writing. I didn’t launch this fund off a war chest. I launched it on a strategic partner’s timeline - take the allocation now or lose it - which meant going live earlier and leaner than the plan called for. There was no clean window to go raise into that. Walking into allocator meetings as the most depleted version of myself would have been the worst trade I could make. So I sat in the gray area:

A real fund, a real thesis, a real track record, and a founder carrying all of it with no protection on the position. No bid. No hedge.

Yet, I kept going. Not because I had a clever move left, and not because I was strong. Because I have never once known how to quit. A lifetime of grinding through things I had no business surviving wired exactly one instinct into me: get up. So I got up the way I’d gotten up every other time: no plan, no cushion, on the only fuel I had left, which was a flat refusal to be the guy who stopped. You can’t beat me if I won’t give up. That isn’t a Nike ad or a motivational poster, it’s the single most load-bearing fact about me and January proved it under conditions I wouldn’t wish on anyone. I needed to find a way through, and I did. It took a while, but I found one again and it led me right here.

VII. J-Curve

This is where the redemption arc is supposed to land. Where I tell you I came out the other side, learned the lesson, and now everything’s better. I’m not on the other side. I’m in it . And that isn’t a hedge, it’s the entire point. Almost every story you’ve ever been handed about hardship was written after the rescue, by someone safe enough to make the suffering tidy. The bookend was already nailed in place. That’s not the story most people actually get to tell, and it isn’t the one I’m telling.

There’s a mechanism at the center of Interstellar that I’ve been circling this whole time without naming. Cooper enters a black hole and comes out standing outside of time itself, behind the bookshelf of Murph’s childhood bedroom, with only one option: send a message back in time. Morse code, tapped into the fabric of spacetime, using nothing more than the hands on a watch. For most of her life, Murph thinks it’s a ghost rattling the shelf and it was - her Dad. Cooper spent his life reaching backward through time to put her exactly where she needed to be.

I spent 605 days certain that no signal was getting out, not from me, at least. The whole time I had it backwards. The signal was coming in. The version of Tom Hogan writing this sentence is the one, who, on my 31st birthday, was sending the message backward through time these past few years. A message sent into the gravity of all the hardship, telling the man on the floor where he needed to go. He couldn’t read it while it was happening, and you never can while it’s happening, but it landed anyway. It carried me here, which is exactly where I needed to end up: building again, hands back on something real, nowhere near finished and finally pointed the right way.

“It’s only after we’ve lost everything that we’re free to do anything.” - Brad Pitt as Tyler Durden in Fight Club (1999)

To launch, you have to shed mass. That’s the physics, not the metaphor. You can’t climb out of a gravity well still carrying everything you brought down into it. The version of me who could hold that weight forever - the one who mistook a clenched grip for strength and would have stood under the load until his knees finally folded - he doesn’t make this climb with me. I left him on the floor on purpose. Grieving him would be a mistake, because he’s the fuel.

I want to be honest about the cost, because the callouses didn’t come free, and I don’t fully trust it yet. I was, and still am, genuinely afraid the stress aged me in ways that won’t show for years to come, but they’ll show in ways I worry about. Maybe it’s because I’m a Dad now or maybe it’s because I realized I’m not bulletproof. Whatever the reason, all I know now is that I came through it, and more than that, I proved to myself that I could come through it.

Since the premise of this piece is that I’m telling you the truth, here’s the rest of it:

I still wonder what that year wrote into me that I’ll only get to read further down the road. The worry hasn’t lifted, but I’ve decided to carry it rather than pretend it dissolved.

Crazier yet: I’d do it all again no questions asked. Who I am today, after the fact, is a guy who understands that he’s fallible and better for it.

The way I used to win had a ceiling, and I’d already pressed my head flat against it. Grind always, rest never. That was the operating system I’d run for as long as I can remember - and I was quietly proud of, the one I had mistaken for a personality. It works beautifully right up until it stops, and when that music does stop? It’s a bitch. The tank had been sitting empty far longer than I ever let myself say out loud, longer than I’d have confessed to the people closest to me - and the detail I keep coming back to in the dark is that I knew. Of course I knew. Somewhere in the back of my skull I always knew the needle was pinned on empty, and I kept my foot down anyway. Lifting off felt like losing and I’d built an entire self around the refusal to lose. The floor was the only thing with enough force to finally make me stop. The old code had to be knocked out of me to make room for a version that can actually carry what I’m about to build. The heights I’m climbing toward now will not yield to the man who got me this far. They’re reserved for the one the collapse made.

“Do not let your fire go out, spark by irreplaceable spark, in the hopeless swamps of the approximate, the not-quite, the not-yet, the not-at-all. Do not let the hero in your soul perish, in lonely frustration for the life you deserved, but have never been able to reach. Check your road and the nature of your battle. The world you desired can be won, it exists, it is real, it is possible, it’s yours.” - Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged (1957)

The fire didn’t go out. That’s the whole story. It scattered into a thousand documents - but it never went out. The fire is what’s left when everything else has burned off. It isn’t ambition, and it isn’t hustle, and it isn’t the performance of grinding for an audience. It’s the thing underneath all of it, the part that looks at something broken and physically cannot keep its hands off the wrench.

I’m not Galt, and I’m not Atlas. I’m just stubborn in a way the odds never figured into their math and I wouldn’t have it any other way. Ellie Hogan already flipped the script on medical science, so why should her old man let the odds get the last word?

I intend to build the world I want out in the open: the fund, the products, the research, the wreckage and the rebuilds because the honesty was the only part that was ever worth anything.

You’re welcome to watch. You’re welcome to help. You’re welcome to bet against it. Whatever suits you, but I’m betting the house on me again.

Whatever can happen will happen. It did, all of it, at once. But I’m still standing, still climbing, wired back into my own hands at last, I’ll tell you the same thing the first epigraph at the top of this page said about the odds being stacked against us:

“That sounds just fine to me.”

Alpha Loop Capital (ALC) has been a dream of mine for as long as I can remember. With the exception of wanting to play in the NBA, I was blessed with knowing exactly what I wanted to do in my career from a very young age. As it turns out, ‘only’ being 6’3” will crush those NBA dreams pretty quickly, so opening my own firm was it - that was the dream.

I didn’t sleep on Tuesday night in anticipation of the press release. Instead, I spent the night thinking about the ups-and-downs that I’ve gone through since I first started out on this journey.

I thought about the low-points, like being rejected from every big bank internship I applied for.

I thought about the times I learned life lessons that I’ll never forget. Like when I learned that you only get out half of what you put in, but if you want to achieve something, you control your own destiny. I learned that lesson when I started as the first employee at a VC firm, working under two ultra-successful individuals. It didn’t matter that the Founders held C-suite and BoD roles for large public companies in a past life. We were starting from the ground up and whatever work we put in, we only got out half, but it was always worth it.

I thought about how fortunate I was to work alongside and learn from one of the most prolific traders and hedge fund managers in Wall Street history. Someone who made it to the top and never once let that go to his head, instead, he worked harder because he loved the process of pursuing goals.

All of those moments in time, whether good or bad, I am grateful for because they led me to today. On Wednesday, a new chapter in my life began, but the goal remains the same: Love the process, not the destination.

“Don’t ever let somebody tell you, you can’t do something. You got a dream, you gotta protect it. People can’t do something themselves, they wanna tell you, you can’t do it. You want something? Go get it. Period.” - Will Smith as Chris Gardner, The Pursuit of Happyness (2006)

Not in my wildest dreams did I think that an announcement about something I worked to create would garner the attention of AP News, Reuters, Market Watch, Forbes, Morningstar, and more than 100 other outlets.

The public coverage is one thing, but it doesn’t matter as much as the personal messages I’ve gotten since the press release. To say that I am grateful would be an understatement and although it is not sufficient, I wanted to say Thank You.

For those who are interested in learning more about Alpha Loop Capital, contact info and links can be found at the bottom of the press release shown below:

Alpha Loop Capital Announces Firm Launch

PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Alpha Loop Capital, an investment management firm, announces its official launch today. The firm is focused on a long-short investment strategy and generating alpha through innovation and client-centric integrity.

Founded by Tom Hogan, a seasoned financial professional with over a decade of experience in Equity Research, Portfolio Management and Options Trading, Alpha Loop Capital specializes in unlocking value in overlooked market segments.

“We’re excited to officially launch Alpha Loop Capital and start this journey,” said Tom Hogan, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Alpha Loop Capital. “We’re committed to leveraging our meticulous fundamental research process and innovative trading strategies to create impact that is meaningful and lasting.”

The firm’s strategy centers on generating uncorrelated returns through long-short equities, active investing and event-driven trading. Alpha Loop’s fundamental, bottoms-up approach to investing and trading will seek to allow it to identify and capitalize on market inefficiencies across various market environments.

Alpha Loop Capital is committed to working closely with its investors and portfolio companies as it aims to transform undervalued investments into thriving opportunities.

About Alpha Loop Capital

Alpha Loop Capital is an investment management firm focused on generating alpha through innovative strategies and client-centric integrity. Founded by Tom Hogan – a seasoned financial professional with expertise in Equity Research, Portfolio Management and Options Trading – the firm specializes in unlocking value in overlooked market segments. Philadelphia-based Alpha Loop Capital employs disciplined capital allocation and multi-strategy investments, including long-short equities, active investing and event-driven trading to deliver absolute, uncorrelated returns across various market environments. Committed to strategic agility and collaborative partnerships, the firm aims to transform undervalued investments into thriving opportunities.

For more information, visit www.alphaloopcapital.com

Contacts

MEDIA CONTACT: media@alphaloopcapital.com

IR CONTACT: ir@alphaloopcapital.com

I’m not saying that in a way that is holier-than-thou, I live out and refine my own process every day. By trying to better understand market dynamics and historical events, I am better equipped as a market participant.

One of the primary reasons I pursued a career in finance was due to my fascination with the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). I was ~11 years old when the crisis began to unravel, so I was old enough to know something was going on, but not able to comprehend what that something was.

Since then, I have spent countless hours studying what happened during the GFC for no other reason than my own enjoyment and intellectual curiosity. As I dove deeper, I realized that what I was learning would be invaluable in my career, if applied correctly. My curiosity led me to a place where not only was I learning about the GFC, but I was also beginning to understand market dynamics and human psychology, both of which I believe are not studied enough by investors.

The Great Financial Crisis was a generational event, one where whenever I thought I figured out what happened (for the most part), something else completely new came up and a new thread could be pulled.

If the idea that one thread would lead to many more was the bait, the opportunity to compete with the smartest people and fastest computers in the world was the hook.

So, why am I saying all of this? Well, it’s easy to pull details from historic financial events and find ways to mold them to current circumstances, but doing so can quickly create false narratives. These false narratives can create biases that we, as investors, don’t even realize are coming into play in our investing decisions.

The reasons we miss these biases is due more to our nature than anything else. As humans, we want things to be black-and-white, but almost everything is inherently in-between. This is what we call, The Gray Area.

Gray Area: An indeterminate territory, undefined position, neither here nor there.

One of my favorite examples of a gray area - one that I think about often - I learned about completely inadvertently. While I was researching what I was going to write my senior thesis about, I came across an article about the GFC and the lack of cash available to US citizens in ATMs. The article piqued my interest because I remembered hearing about this, but thought it was debunked. I quickly learned that not only was the story true, but my belief that there was no shortage of cash was/is the common thought.

In turn, the subject of my thesis was decided: How Mexican Drug Cartels Bailed out the United States Government.

From what is known, the structure of the deal was simple: The IMF acted as the mercenaries, while the US Government bought what the cartels were selling.

Using the IMF to facilitate the deal was easy - no congressional action was needed as it fell under the Fed’s purview. So what did the cartels get in return for the cash they quietly handed over to the US Government? Well, that was never disclosed outside of the cartels’ new found, clean investment portfolio.

If you’ve never heard about this deal, you’re not alone. In fact, you’re in the majority, so let’s take a step back.

In June 2007, there were rumors that US bank ATMs would run out of money. That was then followed by the famous meeting of the world’s largest banks with Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, where Paulson required all of the banks to take a cash infusion to mitigate the market’s ability to sniff out which banks were insolvent.

Taken at face value, the deal was black-and-white, it all made sense as it related to logical thinking, but where that cash came from was the unknown gray area.

If if was not for the Mexican drug cartels infusing $352 billion into the US financial system, who knows which banks would have stayed afloat or which ATMs would run empty.

Don’t take my word for it, here’s Antonio Maria Costa, Head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, saying it:

“In many instances, the money from drugs was the only liquid investment capital. In the second half of 2008, liquidity was the banking system's main problem and hence liquid capital became an important factor…Inter-bank loans were funded by money that originated from the drugs trade and other illegal activities... There were signs that some banks were rescued that way.” - Antonio Maria Costa, Head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime

The ATM ‘rumor’ and cash infusion happened the same exact week Timothy Geithner, then President of the New York Fed, gave a speech before the Forum on Global Leadership in Washington, where he declared financial markets are, “…now deeper and more liquid than they used to be.” I don’t think I need to tell you this, but he lied - all of the politicians, talking heads and economists lied or were unaware of what was happening under their noses. Behind closed doors, the Fed knew what was going on and yet, they said nothing to the public. Instead, the Mexican cartels were able to go on a $352 billion buying spree, all of which became legal tender and avoided the need for being laundered.

Yes, you read that correctly. The United States government was bailed out by the largest drug cartels in the world, yet no one, not even a banker, went to prison.

I tell you this story not from a negative standpoint, but one where I hope to express the importance of checking one’s biases, understanding that black-and-white scenarios and outcomes are rare.

Imagine if the US government did not follow the steps that they did during the GFC - what would our markets look like then and now? Moral arguments can be made from both sides and although it is hard to say, I believe what they did was the right decision.

I wanted to publish this piece before I provided you with my article about some stocks I look at as economic harbingers. These stocks are not the commonly used stocks you hear about on CNBC or Bloomberg. Ones like CAT, which many look to as a proxy for the level of activity in construction or TOL, PHM, or KBH which people use to see activity in the homebuilders.

The stocks I am going to publish are more off the beaten path, but they are all important in my research process. Some are ignored due to investors’ morals, while others have less obvious relations to the economy and market as a whole. Every stock I include has their own function in my process, which I will provide you with when the post comes out later this week.

As for the time being, remember that we do not live in a world that offers many black-and-white opportunities, especially as it relates to investing. With that in mind, focus on investment opportunities where you understand the expansive landscape a stock/company resides in. The more you understand about the landscape, the better off you’ll be at wielding the historical knowledge you have gained to make the best decisions you can.

It’s been a minute since I’ve written a Substack, but what better way to find my way into your inbox than with the most overused email opener?

First and foremost, I apologize for the month-long hiatus, I have been working religiously on the project I mentioned in Flash Point: Price Drives Sentiment. Although it has taken longer than expected to finish, it will be worth the wait.

As a thank you for surviving the Hoags Research drought, I have comped everyone with a 3-month paid subscription. If you have trouble viewing Paid Subscriber posts, please shoot me a note and I’ll get you squared away.

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

It’s only been a mere ~12 hours since I published Flash Point: Price Drives Sentiment and I’ve already come across two separate instances that hearkened back to what I discussed last night. One instance is more important than the other, but who am I to be the gatekeeper of a good story?

Before I continue: If you haven’t had a chance to read the piece from last night, you should check it out - it’ll clarify what I talk about here. Link below:

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

If you’re a student of history, or one of the unfortunate souls who enjoys studying semantics, you’ve likely come across this Mark Twain quote at one time or another. Even if your interests do not lie within one of those categories, you’re here reading this because you’re interested in financial markets, the handsome author, or both.

If you’re reading Hoags Research because of your interest in markets and investing, it’d be a safe bet to assume you’ve seen The Big Short (2015), which opens with Twain’s quote.

I was introduced to the quote when I saw The Big Short for the first time and it quickly became one of my favorites. Twain’s quote alludes to our tendency as humans (and investors) to believe that what we think is a matter of fact. In reality, what we believe to be true is nothing more than our interpretation and opinion of something presented to us. Further, when we act on a belief that hides under the guise of an objective fact, that is when things can go spectacularly wrong.

Take this quote for example: Despite the frequent attribution to Twain, he never actually said it. Misplaced certainty can be dangerous, especially in investing.

Although I am not a fan of semantics, I am a history junkie. If there is a major historical event concomitant with notable economic ramifications, I can promise you I’ve done my best to learn about it. I can also promise that no matter how big or small an event, humans will repeat it in one way or another. Since this is a family-friendly market newsletter, I’ll stick to investing commentary and let you get your nature vs nurture fix elsewhere.

Tom Versus Economics

Speaking of things that don’t change; when I was getting my degree in Economics at Penn State, I had a propensity of challenging everything I was taught, which is putting it mildly. My issue wasn’t with the professors, but with Econ as a whole - that markets and consumers were rational, yadda yadda. The whole ‘rational’ bullshit didn’t sit well with me and I made sure to make that known.

Would it have been easier to explain the theories as they were taught to me? Absolutely.

Did I do that so I could go along to get along?… Were Gator’s bitches using Jimmies? Absolutely not.

It’s in my nature to be relentless if I have a point to make and boy, oh boy, did I have a lot of points to make with the PhD’s teaching my classes.

During my senior year at Penn State, for example, I found myself teetering on the verge of failing a labor economics course, which I needed to pass in order to graduate on time. In a last ditch effort of passing, I decided it was best to take it up with my professor, who, in all seriousness, I respect greatly and took four separate courses with.

On Time: A semester after all of my friends, but hey, semantics, am I right?

My argument was simple: My years of outright refusal to ‘answer with the theory’ rather than real life outcomes - which I preferred - was proof that humans are not rational. Meaning, I wasn’t wrong, economics and the education system were wrong… I can’t say I changed his way of viewing economics, but I can say that it led to me passing the course.

Paying the Piper

All jokes aside, one of the most glaring things I learned about in the world of ‘Academic Economics’ is that no matter what has gone wrong in the past, economists, like investors, will not change unless they are forced to. We’ve seen economists move the goal posts time and time again, creating new ways of increasing or decreasing the money supply, controlling the yield curve, and so on. So far so good this time, right?

Wrong, unfortunately. Math, whether we like it or not, is like gravity. Economists can manipulate whatever they want in order to sleep at night, but one day we will have to Pay the Piper. There’s no free lunch, as they say.

Flash Point

Flash Point: A moment or event in which a conflict, especially a geopolitical conflict, suddenly escalates

As I said earlier, I am a student of history. I believe an understanding of history is a fundamental necessity for all good investors and traders. I understand that I don’t know what I don’t know, but one thing I know for certain is that I can learn from the past and prepare my portfolio in a way that allows me to withstand any and all market volatility.

The reason I am writing this now is not to be negative, it is to be proactive. There is nothing I hate more than being a pessimist, but Utopia doesn’t exist so I’d rather prepare for a rainy day and hope it never comes rather than the inverse.

Put another way - I don’t know when or what the Flash Point will be, but it’s out there. Sure, nominal GDP and wages are growing, but real inflation, which I measure using the Chapwood Index, not CPI, continues to show negative real wage growth. Moreover, recent soft economic data prints around job numbers and hourly wages have piqued my interest.

Gator’s Gat

What I’ve seen in markets the past year has had me quite worried, but if we’re using SPX levels to count records, I’m losing. Am I worried for good reason? Yes, I would say so, but like Mark Twain pointed out - what I think is factual is nothing more than my own opinion. An opinion which is based in my interpretation of the data that I’ve seen.

If I flip my perspective to that of the ‘long-and-strong’ crowd, I’d point to positive data points that has ignited investor appetite to line up at the 24/7 risk-on buffet.

I’ll leave you with this food for thought: if everybody’s in line, make sure you’ve got your eyes on the exit. Just because others let price drive sentiment does not mean you have to. Know what you own and do not let FOMO play a roll in your investing decisions.

Note: I have some significant announcements coming soon so keep your eyes out for an update coming in early Q3!

Last week, Blade Air Mobility (BLDE) continued to prove that the market is still behind the curve when it comes to understanding the company when they announced earnings on May 7th. Once again, management executed on their short-term goals, resulting in beats on the top and bottom lines.

Before I get into the company’s earnings, I want to tip my cap to Blade’s entire team for executing in Q1 and blowing past estimates. I also want to applaud the individual efforts of Founder and CEO, Rob Wiesenthal, as well as Chief Financial Officer, Will Heyburn. Blade’s continued success is a direct result of their operational efforts and leadership, so hats off to them.

For those who are not familiar with Blade and/or would like a refresher, I recommend reading my first piece before reading on, which can be found here: The Market has the Story Wrong, Luxury is Essential

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

If that quote seems familiar to you, that’s because it is the same quote I used in my March piece titled, "Making the Case for Enovix (ENVX)”. I also want to point out that I think it’s safe to say that I’ve made the quote more famous than Teddy Roosevelt did, sort of like Michael Scott helping Wayne Gretzky out.

What’s not up for debate is the meaning behind the quote - putting your work out into the public domain makes you the Man in the Arena. As the Man in the Arena, you are at the mercy of the market, which will tell you if you are right or wrong in no uncertain terms. Today, the market voted in favor of my Enovix thesis following the company’s blowout Q1 earnings. Before we get into the numbers, I have to say that just because I was right today, does not mean I will be right tomorrow and all of us, as investors, must be egoless in markets in order to succeed over the long term.

Enovix Q1 Results

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

Some nights, I’m not as fortunate, dealing with insomnia as I have for as long as I can remember. Last night was one of those nights, where my ability to shut off my brain was nonexistent. Rather than focus on my lack of sleep, I thought I’d come bearing gifts courtesy of said insomnia.

Over the last week or so I’ve faced a brutal bout of writer’s block, which is unusual for me. Rather than publishing pieces, I have found myself with 3+ drafts and even more outlines for future pieces, but nothing in complete form. What I couldn’t figure out was why I was having writer’s block - until last night.

Last night, as I read through the unmitigated disaster that was Tesla’s (TSLA) earnings, it hit me that my writer’s block was due to the lack of conviction I have in the current market environment. This realization, albeit simple in nature, is critical for any investing process.

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

I think one of the most important qualities an investor can have is curiosity. Curious people are always searching for new ideas, asking questions and focused on the future for any signs that the norm is soon to be upended. I think those who are curious make the world a more interesting place because complacency is never an option. They are always striving for more - something I pride myself on. I believe my knack for being curious is one of my greatest strengths as an investor, it’s the thing that drives me to turn over every stone so that I can make the most informed investment decisions that I can. This game we play is not for the faint of heart, it will beat you down and when you finally think you have it figured out, it will evolve, leaving you in the place you started.

For those who know me personally, know that not only am I willing to talk to anyone about anything, they expect it. Being extroverted is a trait, sure, but the real reason I’ll talk to anyone who can help me be a more informed investor is actually because of my stubbornness. If I want something and haven’t been able to find the answer for the problem I’m trying to solve, I’m relentless - sometimes to a fault. This is also why I am naturally inclined to be a short seller. Management teams that provide non-answers or refuse to acknowledge reality are my favorite because what they don’t know is that they just let me off my leash. I love the chase, sniffing out whatever it is they don’t want the market to know. Maybe I love it too much, but that’s a piece for another day.

Unlike what I just said about loving shorts, today I present you with a pair of long positions to consider for your portfolio. The first is listed in this article and the second will be highlighted in a separate piece.

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

First and foremost, I apologize for any abruptness in my writing this week, I have been sick, but as a man of the people, I knew I couldn’t let the man flu stop me from publishing on time… Plus it’s MLB’s Opening Day tomorrow so I will be out of office in very important meetings taking place in my entertainment room.

I thought I’d have more time before I wrote my next research piece, but alas, news from another one of my favorite long-term investments broke recently. The only thing better than good news is good news that the market is mispricing and/or ignores. So, after all this time, Happy Gilmore was right…

To be clear, this is a family-friend Substack, but that was a layup.

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

Fed Day – a day I look forward to every 6 weeks. As a firm believer in free market capitalism, there is a part of me that always hopes that the Fed comes out and says something the market is not expecting. Better yet, the Fed says or does something that actually makes the market listen rather than continuing to call their bluff as history has shown.

My belief as a free market capitalist is that the Fed and all other central banks should never project what they expect to do. I believe that markets should be free and should benefit those who can see the things that others don’t, as our current system creates moral hazard. With that being said, whether I agree or disagree with markets doesn’t matter, what matters is making money so for the time being I will continue to utilize the information given to me and make my bets accordingly. Just like Rasheed Wallace said in 2012 before getting ejected, “Ball don’t lie!” and in this case, the market and the Fed are the ball.

For transparency, I am positioned for an increased level of volatility following today’s press conference at 2:30pm EST, but I am also hedging my bets by remaining long some high-beta stocks. Worst case scenario, stocks sell off and my hedges provide a healthy level of protection for my portfolio. If stocks move higher, my hedges, which were put on using options, will end up worthless, but overall my portfolio will move higher due to the nature of stocks that make up my trading portfolio at this given time.

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

Life has a funny way of coming full circle. It’s been years since I worked in Equity Research professionally, but boy oh boy, how I have missed digging in and dissecting companies. There’s something about becoming the man in the arena once you put your work out there, and having the market tell you in no uncertain terms if you’re right or if you’re a half-brained moron. Markets are black and white: either you’re right or you’re wrong, and you can’t hide from your performance. But that’s why we do it, right? Put up or shut up.

In a previous piece, I mentioned that I would be putting out individual stock research for both long and short positions. Now that I have started getting my feet under me, I expect to publish content 3-5 times a week across various topics. Although it will not always be research reports, my long-form research is where I hope to create the most value for readers. With that being said, my research will be available to all subscribers for the time being, but there will come a day in the (somewhat) near future where my long-form writing and research pieces will be behind the paywall.

As the greatest motivational speaker of our generation, once said,

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

A few days ago, I caught up with one of my closest friends, Ben Rubin, the Co-Founder and CEO of SnoFox. Our conversation followed our usual catching up routine: discussing what he and I are up to, updates about the other guys in our friend group, and being a sounding board for one another. Ben does a great job at seeing things objectively so when I ask him for advice, I take it to heart. I mention this because ever since Ben and I spoke, I’ve found myself reflecting on taking risks, betting on yourself, and the impact of pursuing your passion.

Quick sidebar - I suggest reading about the cool things Ben and his team are doing at SnoFox, which I have linked to above.

Our conversation amplified a lingering uneasy feeling that I’ve had since leaving my previous role. Rather than continuing to dismiss it, I decided to explore what has been nagging me and I’m thankful that I did because it finally hit me: it is easy to follow the path of least resistance, but it is infinitely less fulfilling than taking the road less traveled. I realized that the ‘nagging’ feeling was my subconscious’ way of telling me that I have been stuck and I need to act. In retrospect, I finally understood that my hesitation to accept offers in CIO and Portfolio Manager roles was not a function of nerves, but it was one of fear. Don’t get me wrong, as a 28-year-old, I am extremely fortunate and grateful to have been offered prestigious roles at a young age, but the fear of not pursuing my dream outweighed the positives that come with the roles I mentioned previously. As a result, my decision was made, I’m going to do what Ben did and bet the house on myself.

What that means is that I am going to pursue my lifelong dream of starting my own hedge fund. I have debated if I was going to publish this news, but I realized that I would be a hypocrite if I did not. As I stated in my previous piece, I believe that introducing one’s thoughts and ideas into the public square is a critical function of holding myself accountable and refining skills. Had I avoided announcing what I was going to do next out of fear that I would fail, I would be a hypocrite to my own process. So, if you’ve been wondering why it has been a week since I wrote last, now you know.

The idea of betting on yourself is a straightforward idea when taken at face value, but the actual execution of betting on yourself requires discipline, getting comfortable with risk-taking and most importantly, an unconditional belief in oneself. In keeping with the plan of executing my goal, I thought I’d give readers an overview of what’s next. I will be writing a more detailed piece at a later date focused solely on the fund, but I have written a brief overview below:

Introducing AlphaLoop Capital

AlphaLoop Capital (ALC) is a hedge fund managed by first-time fund manager, Tom Hogan. AlphaLoop Capital seeks to provide investors with non-correlated, asymmetric returns in an investing landscape that is increasingly focused on passive investing. The fund’s investment philosophy combines the traditional strategies of Long-short equities and Activist investing and marries it with event-driven tactical trading. AlphaLoop Capital’s actively managed investment strategy seeks to provide absolute returns through concentrated positioning and tactical trading. ALC will also look for opportunities to become activists in long positions, calling on Partners and Advisors to take board positions (via proxies) in companies where they have domain-expertise.

For those who are interested, please feel free to email me: Tom@AlphaLoop.co

To say I am excited to transform AlphaLoop Capital from an idea into an active fund is an understatement. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous, but a life without risk is one that I am not interested in. Life’s too short to let fear be in the driver’s seat – always bet the house on yourself.

As I thought about markets and my positioning over the long holiday weekend, I was reminded of a scene from one of my favorite movies, The Dark Knight, where the Joker, portrayed by Heath Ledger, visits Harvey Dent (Aaron Eckhart) in the hospital. Ledger’s Joker continues by saying, “I’m an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It’s fear.” Imagine, for a moment, replacing the citizens of Gotham with markets and market participants. Nobody panics when markets relentlessly trend higher and complacency reigns supreme. Yet, introduce volatility to the market, disrupt the established trend, and suddenly, everything becomes chaos.

Frankly, I pondered the parallels between the quote and markets for more time than I’d like to admit, but for good reason. What I realized was that in a euphoric market like the one we have today, markets will always find a reason to move higher because reckless abandon is the “plan” – extend risk, taper hedges and hope for the best. To make sense of this market, I turned to one of the most valuable aspects of my investing process: writing. Writing not only allows me to organize my thoughts; it also allows me to evaluate my positioning and juxtapose it against a different backdrop like heightened volatility.

Writing is a multi-faceted process for me because there are different ‘tiers’ of notes that I keep, ranging from bullet points to explore further all the way to fully-formed investment theses that I am investing on the back of. The evolution of a thought to an actionable thesis is a meticulous practice for me, one that only a handful of ideas sees through. In order to get comfortable enough with a trade or investment, I always take the other side of the trade to try and poke holes in my own thesis. If I can’t find any weaknesses, I then vet the idea with colleagues who see things differently than I do. In a perfect scenario, I am able to find someone who is on the other side of the trade so I can compare and contrast their position against mine.

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

I) To establish a platform for me to share comprehensive research and analyses on markets, individual stock insights, and my personal views on current market dynamics.

II) To deliver value to readers through insightful, engaging content.

Whether my writing inspires a new investment idea, sparks interest in an unfamiliar topic, or strengthens your resolve in a position that takes the other side of a trade, the end goal is always to create value for readers.

Many of you may already know me personally. However, for those who don't, I’d like to briefly introduce myself. My background spans various roles in Finance over nearly a decade. Initially self-taught, I spent most of my college days learning about markets instead of attending classes. Once I got my foot in the door, I did whatever I could to learn as much as possible and as a result, I’ve had the privilege of meeting and working for some of the brightest minds on Wall Street. While my journey has been far from linear, the experiences I've gained are invaluable, and I look forward to sharing them with you over time.

Professionally, my experience includes positions in Equity Research on both the long and short sides of the market. I began in ER covering Energy, Financials, and Tech, eventually transitioning to a Generalist role. After my days in Equity Research, I joined a Venture Capital firm, now amongst the top quartile of peers, as its first employee, focusing on investing in B2B SaaS companies in the Seed to Series B rounds. I wore a lot of hats in my role, but I was primarily focused on sourcing, due diligence and leading investment rounds. As we grew headcount, I began raising capital for multiple funds and serving on the boards of portfolio companies. Most recently, I served as the COO and Co-Portfolio Manager of an Asset Management firm. My role consisted of running day-to-day operations of the firm, as well as co-managing a Hedged Equity mutual fund and running individual positions for Ultra-High-Net-Worth clients. Most notably, I refined my skills in trading options and equities under the mentorship of one of the most renowned and accomplished traders on Wall Street.

As previously mentioned, the idea for this Substack has been in motion for years, but it only came to fruition after I decided to take a break to decide where I venture to next in my career. In essence, Hoags Research represents the culmination of my journey so far, one that has been driven by insatiable desire to compete against the best in the world – be it the sharpest minds, biggest funds or fastest computers. My goal has always been to find an edge against the best and I hope that I can help readers do the same.

In conclusion, I hope that my Substack is a place where we can create mutually beneficial outcomes. Here, you'll find content that is not only insightful and thorough but also encourages discussion and debate. My goal is for you to feel like you're engaging with a trusted friend, someone who looks forward to sharing, learning, and growing alongside one another. Whether it's through articles here, discussions on Twitter, or any other medium, I encourage you to engage in the conversation. I'm excited to have started Hoags Research and hope you'll join me.

Author’s Note: Any and all information detailed in this post and future posts are opinions of Tom Hogan and should not be considered investment advice. Please do your own due diligence and consult a financial professional prior to making any financial decisions.