Hoags — Tom HoganFor agents
Investing · Mar 20, 2024

Fed Day: Ball Don't Lie

5 min read · 1,283 words · By Tom Hogan

"Ball don't lie!" - Rasheed Wallace. What I watch on FOMC day and why.

“Ball don’t lie!” – Rasheed Wallace, New York Knicks

Fed Day – a day I look forward to every 6 weeks. As a firm believer in free market capitalism, there is a part of me that always hopes that the Fed comes out and says something the market is not expecting. Better yet, the Fed says or does something that actually makes the market listen rather than continuing to call their bluff as history has shown.

My belief as a free market capitalist is that the Fed and all other central banks should never project what they expect to do. I believe that markets should be free and should benefit those who can see the things that others don’t, as our current system creates moral hazard. With that being said, whether I agree or disagree with markets doesn’t matter, what matters is making money so for the time being I will continue to utilize the information given to me and make my bets accordingly. Just like Rasheed Wallace said in 2012 before getting ejected, “Ball don’t lie!” and in this case, the market and the Fed are the ball.

For transparency, I am positioned for an increased level of volatility following today’s press conference at 2:30pm EST, but I am also hedging my bets by remaining long some high-beta stocks. Worst case scenario, stocks sell off and my hedges provide a healthy level of protection for my portfolio. If stocks move higher, my hedges, which were put on using options, will end up worthless, but overall my portfolio will move higher due to the nature of stocks that make up my trading portfolio at this given time.

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

— Hoags

Opening excerpt. The full piece, with its charts and tables, is on Substack. Read the original · Open in the reader · Markdown

Published by Tom Hogan for informational and educational purposes only. Not investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice; not a research report; not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or interest in any fund. Tom Hogan and/or Alpha Loop Capital, LLC may hold long or short positions in securities referenced, and those positions may change at any time without notice. Views are his own. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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