Hoags — Tom HoganFor agents
Investing · Apr 24, 2024

Taking a Step Back When 1+1 = 3

3 min read · 716 words · By Tom Hogan

Keep it simple, stupid.

Most people unwind from the day with thunderstorm sleep tracks or meditation, but I prefer reading market news and commentary before I go down for the long nap. Do I understand that my way of decompressing is weird? Absolutely, but at least I’m not a Disney adult so I’ve got that going for me.

Some nights, I’m not as fortunate, dealing with insomnia as I have for as long as I can remember. Last night was one of those nights, where my ability to shut off my brain was nonexistent. Rather than focus on my lack of sleep, I thought I’d come bearing gifts courtesy of said insomnia.

Over the last week or so I’ve faced a brutal bout of writer’s block, which is unusual for me. Rather than publishing pieces, I have found myself with 3+ drafts and even more outlines for future pieces, but nothing in complete form. What I couldn’t figure out was why I was having writer’s block - until last night.

Last night, as I read through the unmitigated disaster that was Tesla’s (TSLA) earnings, it hit me that my writer’s block was due to the lack of conviction I have in the current market environment. This realization, albeit simple in nature, is critical for any investing process.

The rest of this piece, with the charts and tables the argument was built on, is at the source link below.

— Hoags

Opening excerpt. The full piece, with its charts and tables, is on Substack. Read the original · Open in the reader · Markdown

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